Stellar (XLM) Price Prediction 2025/2030: Is investing in XLM really worth it?...

Stellar, as a platform for small-amount payments, appeals to individuals rather than organizations. It is gaining popularity as a result of its simple user interface. Stellar allows for real-time transactions to take place anywhere in the world in as little as five seconds. Soroban, a new smart contracts platform, was just published in its second preview. The upgrade aims for more scalability and sensibility, as well as a developer-friendly platform.

Only recently, Ethereum transitioned from the proof-of-work (PoS) to the proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism following the Merge. The step underlines the need for cryptocurrencies to move towards eco-friendly methods. In this regard, Stellar is very promising as it has a smaller carbon footprint. Its authentication cycle is also fast, keeping energy use to a minimum. 

Acting as decentralized currency exchange, Stellar helps you track all of your assets with an order book. You can sell, buy and manage all of your assets here, with XLM acting as an intermediate currency for paying transaction fees. The currency is very useful for the users because it helps you reduce transaction costs. 

The Stellar network makes transactions seamless and reduces fees for micro-payments and remittances in order to make financial services affordable and accessible to the world.

Transactions on the Stellar platform are performed swiftly due to the ease of Lumens. The currency not only makes transactions seamless for the sender and the recipient but also ensures that transactions are secure. 

Jed McCaleb, Co-founder, and CTO of Stellar said in an interview with CoinMarketCap that XLM is used in a fundamental way for the network.

“Maybe that affects the price, maybe price is a secondary indicator of how useful the underlying protocol is in some way… But I think that the trend is there: that where price and utility can come into play.”

XLM is listed on a number of crypto exchanges including Binance, eToro, Huobi Global, CoinTiger, FTX, and OKEx. This shows that the currency is an increasingly accepted choice of investors now. 

A total of 100 billion XLMs were issued when the Stellar network was launched in 2015. In 2019, the group announced that it was burning over half of the cryptocurrency’s supply. Stellar mentions on its website that currently, there are around 50 billion XLMs in existence; 20 billion XLMs are in circulation and 30 billion XLMs are retained by the Stellar Development Foundation for project development. Nothing more will be created.

In an interview in March 2022, Stellar CEO Denelle Dixon said that despite its ongoing military conflict with Russia, Ukraine is still working with Stellar on its central bank digital currency (CBDC). The progress, however, has not been at the expected speed due to the crisis. She added that Stellar is “talking to the administration about things that we can do to help with … humanitarian aid needs.” She also commended Ukraine’s decision to accept cryptocurrency donations for aid.

Also, it was only recently that XLM got listed on the leading cryptocurrency exchange Robinhood, significantly spiking its price. 

Due to its increasing adoption, XLM is among the top 30 cryptocurrencies in the world right now, with a market capitalization of under $3 billion. 

Why these projections matter

Where Stellar trumps other financial platforms is its low transaction fees which have drawn a huge number of cryptocurrency users to it. It is one of the few blockchain networks that has been successful in collaborating with large tech corporations such as Deloitte and IBM. Stellar, in partnership with IBM, launched a project that enables fintech to engage in financial transactions using assets such as stablecoins.

It must be noted that Stellar is one of the large corporations that are operating in the cryptocurrency market. It is one of the most centralized cryptocurrency networks active on the internet. While the Stellar network uses decentralized nodes, it doesn’t have that many validators. Such an infrastructure gives the group a lot of control over the operations and price movement of XLM.

In 2016, Deloitte announced a partnership with Stellar, along with four other blockchain networks, to provide new technological capabilities to its global financial institution client base.

In June 2018, the Fortune reported that New York financial regulators approved Stellar Lumens to trade on the itBit exchange, the first time the state’s authorities have given it the green light.

In October 2021, IBM partnered with Stellar to facilitate cross-border payments by banks. The system uses XLM as a bridge currency for transactions and it has been successful in the South Pacific region. 

The same year, Moneygram announced a partnership with Stellar. Its integration with Stellar facilitates the conversion of the USDC stablecoin into cash and vice versa. The facility aims to encourage the liquidity of cryptocurrencies and the integration of traditional and cryptocurrencies.  

In October 2021,  Flutterwave, a global payments technology company, also announced two new remittance corridors between Europe and Africa on the Stellar network. The step is a major step in Stellar’s expansion in the global market. 

It also succeeded in receiving certification from the Islamic scholars of Bahrain in 2018, aiming to integrate the technology into the field of sharia-compliant financial products, reported Reuters. 

“We have been looking to work with companies that facilitate remittances, including in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. It’s a huge market,” said Lisa Nestor, the then-director of partnerships at Stellar. Since the Middle East and South Asian regions are key areas of growth for the group where a lot of countries are run on a sharia-compliant system, this is a major success for Stellar.

Developing economies are the main focus of the Stellar network in the areas of remittances and loans. It primarily aims to target those who are still not part of the traditional banking system. 

In June 2022, the global platform for modern money movement, Nium, and Stellar announced a partnership to enable payouts to 190 countries. “This integration truly drives home the value that blockchain-powered cross-border payment solutions bring to the current financial system,” said Denelle Dixon, CEO and Executive Director of the Stellar Development Foundation. “At SDF, we are always working to fill up the map and connect the network to more of the globe. Together with Nium, we are thrilled to expand the reach of the Stellar network so significantly.”

In an interview with Pymnts last year, Nestor said that digital assets are a tool for everyone and that this asset space will grow. Bitcoin, stablecoins, Dogecoin, and other assets can all coexist in a single interoperable network and create an inclusive financial system. “We hear from our partners around the world that the ability to save, access, and transact seamlessly across borders, with dollars, is something that draws a lot of interest and demand,” she added. Stellar aims to leverage its system in such a way that makes it both accessible and easy to use for people and businesses all over the world.

Another prominent feature of Stellar is that it gives power to the community to decide what project(s) the blockchain should focus on. 

We will now briefly give an overview of the key performance indicators of XLM such as price and market capitalization. We will then summarize what the world’s leading crypto-analysts have to say about the future of this currency, along with its Fear & Greed Index.

XLM’s Price, Market Cap, and everything in between

XLM’s price has hiked significantly over the last few years. Back in 2018-2019, it kept falling below its previous ATH of around $0.93 (recorded in early January 2018). It was only in 2021 that its price again began to rise, hitting a price level of over $0.7 around mid-May. However, as the cryptocurrency market collapsed in the second quarter of 2022, XLM went into a bearish dive.

At the time of writing, it was trading at $0.1074, with a market capitalization of below $3 billion. 

Source: XLM/USDT, Tradingview

The market capitalization of the cryptocurrency follows its price trends throughout. In early January 2018, it was nearly $9 billion and it skyrocketed to as high as $16.5 billion (May 2021) during the crypto-boom of 2021. In fact, it was performing fairly well in 2022 too until the market crashed during the year’s second quarter. 

Stellar has seen many growth spurts over the past few years, such as when Mercado Bitcoin announced its use of the platform. In less than a year, Stellar housed almost 3 million user accounts. Since that time, however, Stellar has built a network of partners that includes Flutterwave and MoneyGram.

XLM’s 2025 Predictions 

Readers should first be aware of certain things about market predictions. Different crypto-analysts may choose different sets of parameters to predict the prices of currencies. Therefore, it is self-evident that their analyses and predictions will widely vary. Besides, none can foresee certain political or economic changes such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis or China’s decision to ban crypto-mining. Investors should therefore conduct their own research before deciding to invest in any cryptocurrency.

Nicole Willing is a financial journalist with over a decade of experience. She writes for the Capital and she recently claimed that the price of XLM has now stabilized after stumbling in May due to the collapse of Terra.

In fact, according to Willing, the altcoin could trade at around $0.325 by the end of 2025. Another AI-based forecaster AI Pickup predicted the average price of XLM in 2025 to be $0.14. 

A Changelly blog post added that many experts have observed the prices and fluctuations of XLM over the years, concluding that the crypto could go as high as $0.51 and as low as $0.42 in 2025. Its average price will remain around $0.43 in the said year, it added, with potential ROI of the altcoin projected to be 292%. 

On the contrary, Finder’s panel of experts are a little more optimistic about where they see XLM going in the next few years. While the average prediction for 2025 centered around XLM being valued at $12.5, there were outlier predictions which places the crypto’s value at $150 by the aforementioned year.

XLM’s 2030 Predictions 

The aforementioned Changelly blog post also predicted that the maximum and minimum prices of XLM in 2030 will be $2.97 and $2.56, respectively. 

According to Willing’s predictions, experts are both bullish and bearish in their assessment of the performance of XLM in 2030. Some predict that it could go as high as $1.28 while some predict that it won’t be able to hike over $0.352. 

On the contrary, Telegaon writes that 2030 could be a year of change for the cryptocurrency market as many coins’ values might reach their peaks during this period. It is extremely bullish in its forecast that the cryptocurrency might hit a maximum level of $31.02.

Finder’s panel, as expected, was even more optimistic on this front. It projected a maximum value of $200 for XLM by the year 2030, with an average price of $17.66 for the cryptocurrency.

Now, while the aforementioned projections might sound crazy, there may be some logic to it too. Consider this – Many nation-states across the world are actively considering Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Stellar securing a partnership with Ukraine to provide a CBDC infrastructure could be the catalyst it sorely needs. In fact, according to Finder,

“If successful, it may mean the project becomes the go-to infrastructure provider for governments globally.”

Furthermore, according to Dr. Iwa Salami,

“As an increasing number of countries around the world explore CBDCs, concrete examples of successful implementation of these projects by blockchain technology firms is likely to increase the value of their native cryptocurrencies. As such, this may result in an increase in the price of XLM.”

Not everyone’s convinced though, with some like Professor John Hawkins claiming that such updates are unlikely to “save the coin.”

Even so, it’s worth pointing out that most do see some positive impact on XLM’s prices.

Source: Finder

It was in March this year that Stellar stated in its blog that it will launch Project Jump Cannon, an E&D venture to introduce native smart contracts for its blockchain. The same month, it also introduced the Starbridge project that would create bridges between Stellar and other blockchains, enabling interoperability. If Stellar continues to adopt more of such innovations and succeeds in building a larger community, it would significantly increase its price by 2030. 

Conclusion

The Stellar team plans to focus on three strategic building blocks in 2022, viz. (i) increasing network scalability and innovation, (ii) activating more network participation, and (iii) promoting diversity and inclusion.

In June 2022, the system upgraded Protocol 19, building payment channels and key recovery channels. Stellar is also working on Project Jump Cannon to facilitate a robust execution environment for smart contracts. 

This year, many crypto exchanges such as WhiteBIT, CoinMe, and Mercado Bitcoin enabled USD-backed stablecoin transactions, increasing access to USDC on Stellar.  

Stellar has, time and again, stressed its role in increasing financial inclusion across the globe. In particular, it focuses on working towards better micro-finance management. It has partnered with financial institutions like FinClusive to make financial transactions over banking networks easier and seamless. Today, it operates in association with a number of financial institutions across the globe, shaping the future of a financial system that is welcoming to cryptocurrency. 

Any financial institution can integrate with Stellar and avoid the hassle of building its own payment gateway. This facility makes the process innovative and specialized. Besides, the associated costs for both the platforms and its customers are incredibly low, making Stellar the preferred choice of many global financial institutions. This integration connects these global players in such a way that interoperability and communication among different systems are seamless. 

These developments are certain to boost Stellar’s credibility among users. Besides, XLM is one of the most eco-friendly cryptocurrencies. Its consensus model is faster than both PoS and PoW, making it the preferred choice of many investors. 

The Stellar network is considered to be a rival to the Ripple network. While Ripple helps banks make fund transfers, Stellar helps individuals outside the banking system make fund transfers. Its simple, swift, and economical process has made it very popular among users across several developed countries. 

The unique features of Stellar such as strategic partnerships and convenience make XLM one of the most reliable crypto investments. Its growth as a payments network will be the most important factor influencing the future of XLM. 

A significant accomplishment of Stellar is the integration of the global financial system while cutting fees. Stellar has a sizable user base, which is not surprising given that it has become a crucial tool for enabling economic empowerment. Despite being embroiled in a legal dispute with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Stellar’s Lumens coin is a major cryptocurrency to wager on.

We must note that XLM will be scarce in the future as Stellar doesn’t plan to mint more currency. As it becomes increasingly rare, its value is bound to increase. Such a possible scenario could make XLM a potentially lucrative investment asset.

As far as the F&G Index is concerned, well…

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

Neura.Blockchain@aol.com

+54911 5665 6060

Buenos Aires, October 28, 2022    

American submarine was close to the explosion of Nord Stream...

A Los Angeles-class U.S. attack submarine was in the vicinity of the Nord Stream explosion on Sept. 26 and may have had a role in crippling the undersea pipeline carrying natural gas from Russia to Germany, according to a crew member of the Navy's P-8 Poseidon that flew over the damaged pipeline shortly after the explosion occurred.

As previously reported, the White Hat division of the US army arrested the Poseidon crew after receiving credible evidence linking high-ranking officers loyal to the Biden regime with a false flag operation aimed at making it seem that Russian President Vladimir Putin destroyed his own source of income - a very incredulous notion.

The Poseidon pilots have endured several interrogations, JAG sources told Real Raw News, and stuck to their original story: they had been diverted to Nord Stream after the explosion and were told to acoustically monitor the area for signs of Russian underwater activity. They said that they had dropped sonar buoys and loitered near the pipeline, then, finding no evidence of any underwater activity at all, left the area for the Kamchatka Peninsula, according to their orders.

One of the P-8's sonar operators, however, gave the JAG researchers a completely different story. He wrote in an affidavit that the P-8 dropped the first buoy directly onto where the explosion had taken place. The Poseidon began flying racetrack patterns, six in total, in an expanding radius above the compromised pipeline, releasing a buoy on each circuit. The last buoy landed approximately 50 miles southeast of the epicenter.

"The final sonar buoy almost immediately revealed a fast-moving underground transient heading southeast towards the coast of Germany. I was 2,500 yards from the drop point and booking it at 27 knots. But it was not a Russian submarine. I classified the contact both acoustically and with a digital display that we call a waterfall. It was absolutely an L.A. class, the [omitted] one, according to the database," part of his statement read.

JAG sources required RRN to omit the submarine's name while the investigation is ongoing.

The Los Angeles-class attack submarine has been a mainstay of the US Navy since 1976. The 362-foot nuclear-powered submarine holds 129 men for deployments of up to 90 days, and carries an impressive arsenal of torpedoes, Harpoon anti-ship missiles and Tomahawk land-attack missiles. Twenty-seven remain in service.

The presence of the Los Angeles-class ship took the sonarman by surprise.

"They didn't tell us that American submarines were in the area, and when I informed my superior, he told me, and I'm paraphrasing here because I can't remember his exact words: 'Well, mmm, I'm not really sure if we're supposed to see that or not.' When we landed back in Keflavik, we were individually interrogated by an Icelandic official, an American in a suit that I assumed was from the CIA and, through a video call, a US Navy admiral [name withheld]. I was told that I did not see an American submarine," his statement continued.

His testimony leaves many inconsistencies unanswered. If he's telling the truth, the pilots are lying. Real Raw News is still waiting for a summary of the interrogation of the relay pilots and four other crew members.

"For every question answered, another one pops up," a JAG source told RRN. "There is still the problem of missing flight data, which is worth six hours. The only way we can corroborate what happened in those missing hours is to examine the aircraft and sensor logs, which we don't have. And we don't have it because we can't find the plane. He's gone. It's not in the air and it's not in Keflavik. No one here is giving up, and JAG will follow this to a logical conclusion."

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

Neura.Blockchain@aol.com

+54911 5665 6060

Buenos Aires, October 25, 2022   

Submarino estadounidense estaba cerca de la explosión de Nord Stream...

Un submarino de ataque estadounidense de clase Los Ángeles estaba en las cercanías de la explosión de Nord Stream el 26 de septiembre y pudo haber tenido un papel en paralizar el conducto submarino que transporta gas natural de Rusia a Alemania, según un miembro de la tripulación del P-8 Poseidón de la Marina que sobrevoló el gasoducto dañado poco después de que ocurriera la explosión.

Como se informó anteriormente, la partición del Sombrero Blanco del ejército estadounidense arrestó a la tripulación del Poseidón después de recibir evidencia creíble que vinculaba a oficiales de alto rango leales al régimen de Biden con una operación de bandera falsa destinada a hacer parecer que el presidente ruso Vladimir Putin destruyó su propia fuente de ingresos, una noción muy incrédula.

Los pilotos del Poseidón han soportado varios interrogatorios, dijeron fuentes de JAG a Real Raw News, y se apegaron a su historia original: habían sido desviados a Nord Stream después de la explosión y se les dijo que vigilaran acústicamente el área en busca de signos de actividad submarina rusa. Dijeron que habían dejado caer boyas de sonar y merodearon cerca del oleoducto, luego, al no encontrar evidencia de ninguna actividad submarina en absoluto, partieron del área hacia la península de Kamchatka, según sus órdenes.

Uno de los operadores de sonar del P-8, sin embargo, dio a los investigadores del JAG una historia completamente diferente. Escribió en una declaración jurada que el P-8 dejó caer la primera boya directamente sobre donde había tenido lugar la explosión. El Poseidón comenzó a volar patrones de hipódromos, seis en total, en un radio de expansión por encima de la tubería comprometida, liberando una boya en cada circuito. La última boya amerizó aproximadamente a 50 millas al sureste del epicentro.

"La boya de sonar final reveló casi de inmediato un transitorio subterráneo de rápido movimiento que se dirigía hacia el sureste hacia la costa de Alemania. Estaba a 2.500 yardas del punto de caída y reservándolo a 27 nudos. Pero no era un submarino ruso. Clasifiqué el contacto tanto acústicamente como con una pantalla digital que llamamos cascada. Era absolutamente una clase de Los Ángeles, la [omitida], según la base de datos", decía parte de su declaración.

Fuentes del JAG requirieron que RRN omitiera el nombre del submarino mientras la investigación está en curso.

El submarino de ataque clase Los Ángeles ha sido un pilar de la Marina de los Estados Unidos desde 1976. El submarino de propulsión nuclear de 362 pies alberga a 129 hombres para despliegues de hasta 90 días, y lleva un impresionante arsenal de torpedos, misiles antibuque Harpoon y misiles de ataque terrestre Tomahawk. Veintisiete permanecen en servicio.

La presencia del barco de la clase Los Ángeles tomó al sonarman por sorpresa.

"No nos dijeron que los submarinos estadounidenses estaban en el área, y cuando se lo informé a mi superior, me dijo, y estoy parafraseando aquí porque no puedo recordar sus palabras exactas: 'Bueno, mmm, no estoy realmente seguro de si se supone que debemos ver eso o no'. Cuando aterrizamos de vuelta en Keflavik, fuimos interrogados individualmente por un funcionario islandés, un estadounidense con un traje que asumí que era de la CIA y, a través de una videollamada, un almirante de la Marina de los Estados Unidos [nombre omitido]. Me dijeron que no vi un submarino estadounidense", continuó su declaración.

Su testimonio deja muchas incongruencias sin respuesta. Si está diciendo la verdad, los pilotos están mintiendo. Real Raw News todavía está esperando un resumen del interrogatorio de los pilotos de relevo y otros cuatro tripulantes.

"Por cada pregunta respondida, aparece otra", dijo una fuente de JAG a RRN. "Todavía está el problema de los datos de vuelo faltantes, que valen seis horas. La única forma en que podemos corroborar lo que sucedió en esas horas faltantes es examinar los registros de aviones y sensores, que no tenemos. Y no lo tenemos porque no podemos encontrar el avión. Se ha ido. No está en el aire y no está en Keflavik. Nadie aquí se está dando por vencido, y JAG seguirá esto hasta una conclusión lógica".

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

Neura.Blockchain@aol.com

+54911 5665 6060

Buenos Aires, October 25, 2022  

Deutsche Bank warns: The markets underestimate what is to come and there are six reasons that prove it...

Despite the fact that the latest US inflation data confirmed that the price increase is still very much alive, the markets looked the other way and ended last week with a relatively positive tone.

This week, the situation doesn't look much different. On Monday, October 17, the stock markets rose strongly to the beat of bonds (their price rises and their profitability falls). It seems that there is some optimism in some segments of the investment world despite the list of endless risks that plague the economy and that can greatly complicate the scenario from one day to the next (Russia's nuclear option remains a risk). Are the markets underestimating what may be to come?

Deutsche Bank economists are very clear about this:

The markets are ignoring the inflationary shock and the impact it is likely to have on the real performance of stocks and bonds. Experts of the German bank believe that investors can face years of negative real returns (financial repression), and yet they are still invested or looking for opportunities to get in and out in an environment that does not bode well.

The markets usually quote the risks clearly, but today it does not seem that they are trading on the possibility that a Putin could resort to nuclear weapons or other options in response to NATO threats. It is true that stock markets have fallen and bond yields have risen, but these movements do not seem too in line for what could be the beginning of a global war or a stagflation with negative growth (recession) and rising interest rates.

"The markets are ignoring the fact that we are at increasing risk of returning to prolonged 1970s-style stagflationary dynamics, which would require an even greater interest rate response. If the experience of the 1970s is repeated, investors will find themselves with a prolonged period of negative real yields for both bonds and stocks," according to Henry Allen, a researcher and analyst at Deutsche Bank.

This expert stresses that "this is not just a warning (without foundation). Inflation has become increasingly widespread and persistent. The interest rates managed by the central bank remain deeply negative in real terms, even after all the adjustment made so far. And fiscal stimulus packages to deal with the energy shock are putting further upward pressure on inflation in the medium term."

Two trains at full speed:

Allen believes that these forces are like trains that are going to collide. On the one hand, the inflation train picks up speed with globally coordinated fiscal policies (more spending, aid, some tax cuts...), while interest rate hikes are another train coming head-on to try to curb inflation. In addition, the problem with rate hikes is that their real impact on the economy sometimes takes up to a year to be perceived, so, perhaps, rate hikes have already done a lot of damage, but as it has not yet been clearly seen, central banks will continue to raise interest rates (in highly indebted economies, with unproductive and vulnerable companies). The train wreck may end in a rare recession.

Six reasons to believe the markets are wrong:

In light of this troubling inflation dynamic, Allen and his colleagues at Deutsche Bank outline the reasons why markets should be much more concerned about inflation than they are

1. The risk of inflation expectations slipping is seriously underestimated:

One of the biggest determinants of inflation expectations is where inflation is at the moment. So the longer inflation stays high, the greater the risk that inflation expectations will also rise. For the moment, expectations have remained relatively, but there are worrying signs that this could be reversing, the Deutsche Bank report ensures.

2. Central bank interest rates remain deeply negative in real terms:

Both the Fed and the ECB have embarked on rapid tightening cycles and are moving at a rate of 75bp per meeting. Persistent inflation means that their policy rates remain deeply negative in real terms. In fact, in September, the real spot federal funds rate was still below -5%, which means that it is still a long way from the levels it reached during the inflationary decade of 1970.

For its part, in the Eurozone, the ECB's real rate (interest rate minus inflation) hit a record low in September, despite the 125 bps of rate increases that have been seen so far, because inflation has continued to increase. Moreover, even if the ECB only wanted to bring rates up to the neutral zone (around 2%), although it would still have several increases in the price of money, that in the most conservative scenario of rate hikes, since to stop inflation, the ECB will probably have to enter the contractionary terrain of monetary policy, as several members of the Governing Council have begun to point out.

"All this is still a long way from the strongly positive real rates that were used to control inflation under Paul Volcker as Fed chairman, and adds to the possibility that inflationary pressures will be stronger than expected in the coming months," warns the economist at Deutsche Bank.

3. Government policies continue to serve to boost inflationary pressures in the medium term:

"Currently, we are experiencing a globally synchronized cycle of rate hikes. But fiscal policy is pushing in the other direction. For example, Germany announced a major fiscal package at the end of September to limit gasoline prices, which was one of the factors that led our European economists to raise their benchmark expectations for the ECB's terminal rate," the German bank's report notes.

"The collective impact of these policies is pushing up inflation. In addition, political incentives remain in favour of further interventions, given the unusually large reduction in the cost of living faced by consumers, so there is an underestimated risk that fiscal policy measures will help inflation to remain structurally higher."

4. Inflation (and core inflation) remains widespread across the consumer price basket:

When the rise in inflation began in 2021, it could reasonably be attributed to some idiosyncratic factors, such as rising energy prices, second-hand cars... But in recent months, the explanation for inflation has changed." In the case of the Eurozone, a good part is still the fault of energy, the question is that it is still energy, this component does not seem to give respite to the Old Continent, rather the other way around, energy could become a structural factor of high inflation in the Eurozone.

In the US, inflation is also a reflection of the impact of housing, which is a lagging variable. But even if you look at the core CPI, excluding housing, then monthly inflation in September presented the very high growth (+0.45%). Meanwhile, "core inflation indicators, such as the trimmed average, reach multi-decade highs in both the US and the euro area. Therefore, we can no longer rely only on specific prices to normalize inflation so that it goes down, since it has spread much more," Allen argues.

5. Are the so-called 'sticky' prices are the ones that are still accelerating:

One of the most worrying details of last week's US inflation report was that monthly growth in the core CPI series reached its highest level since 1982, at +0.68%... "The fact that this series is not even stabilizing, but accelerating, is bad news and raises the possibility that inflation may not decrease as quickly as investors expect in the coming months."

6. As in the 1970s, seemingly transient shocks have merged to keep inflation high:

We can't rule out more happening. As with last year, consensus expectations are that inflation will recede over the next 12 months. But what would happen if a new shock added to the process of unwinding inflation expectations?. 

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

Neura.Blockchain@aol.com

+54911 5665 6060

Buenos Aires, October 18, 2022

Deutsche Bank avisa: los mercados subestiman lo que está por venir y hay seis razones que lo demuestran...

Pese a que el último dato inflación de EEUU confirmó que la subida de los precios sigue bien viva, los mercados miraron hacia otro lado y terminaron la semana pasada con un tono relativamente positivo. 

Esta semana, la situación no parece muy diferente. El lunes 17 de Octubre, las bolsas subieron con fuerza al compás de los bonos (sube su precio y cae su rentabilidad). Parece que existe cierto optimismo en algunos segmentos del mundo de la inversión pese la lista de interminables riesgos que acosan a la economía y que pueden complicar sobremanera el escenario de un día para otro (la opción nuclear de Rusia sigue siendo un riesgo). ¿Están subestimando los mercados lo que puede estar por venir?

Los economistas de Deutsche Bank lo tienen muy claro: 

Los mercados están ignorando el shock inflacionario y el impacto que, probablemente, tendrá sobre el rendimiento real de las acciones y los bonos. Los expertos del banco alemán creen que los inversores se pueden enfrentar a años rendimientos reales negativos (represión financiera) y, sin embargo, siguen invertidos o buscando oportunidades para entrar y salir en un entorno que no presagia nada bueno.

Los mercados suelen cotizar los riesgos con claridad, pero a día de hoy no parece que estén cotizando con la posibilidad de que un Putin pueda recurrir a las armas nucleares o a otras opciones en respuesta a las amenazas de la OTAN. Es cierto que las bolsas han caído y que el rendimiento de los bonos se ha incrementado, pero estos movimientos no parecen demasiado acordes para lo que podría ser el comienzo de una guerra global o de una estanflación con crecimiento negativo (recesión) y tipos de interés al alza.

"Los mercados están ignorando el hecho de que corremos un riesgo cada vez mayor de volver a una dinámica estanflacionaria prolongada al estilo de la década de 1970, lo que requeriría una respuesta de los tipos de interés aún mayor. Si se repite la experiencia de la década de 1970, los inversores se encontrarán con un período prolongado de rendimientos reales negativos tanto para los bonos como para las acciones", según Henry Allen, investigador y analista en Deutsche Bank.

Este experto destaca que "esta no es una advertencia sin más (sin fundamento). La inflación se ha vuelto cada vez más amplia y persistente. Los tipos de interés que maneja el banco central siguen siendo profundamente negativos en términos reales, incluso después de todo el ajuste realizado hasta ahora. Y los paquetes de estímulo fiscal para hacer frente al shock energético están ejerciendo una mayor presión alcista sobre la inflación a medio plazo".

Dos trenes a toda velocidad:

Allen cree que estas fuerzas son como trenes que van a colisionar. Por un lado, el tren de la inflación coge velocidad con las políticas fiscales coordinadas a nivel mundial (más gasto, ayudas, algunas rebajadas de impuestos...), mientras que las subidas de tipos de interés son otro tren que viene de frente para intentar frenar la inflación. Además, el problema de las subidas de tipos es que su impacto real en la economía tarda en percibirse a veces hasta un año, de modo que, quizá, las subidas de tipos ya han hecho mucho daño, pero como aún no se ha podido ver de forma clara, los bancos centrales seguirán subiendo los tipos de interés (en economías muy endeudadas, con empresas poco productivas y vulnerables). El choque de trenes puede terminar en una recesión poco corriente.

Seis razones para creer que los mercados se equivocan:

A la luz de esta preocupante dinámica de inflación, Allen y sus colegas de Deutsche Bank describen las razones por las que los mercados deberían estar mucho más preocupados por la inflación de lo que están

1. El riesgo de que las expectativas de inflación se desanclen está seriamente subestimado: 

Uno de los mayores determinantes de las expectativas de inflación es dónde se encuentra la inflación en este momento. Entonces, cuanto más tiempo permanezca alta la inflación, mayor será el riesgo de que las expectativas de inflación también aumenten. Por el momento, las expectativas se han mantenido relativamente, pero hay signos preocupantes de que esto podría estar revirtiéndose, asegura el informe de Deutsche Bank.

2. Los tipos de interés que manejan los bancos centrales siguen siendo profundamente negativos en términos reales:

Tanto la Fed como el BCE se han embarcado en ciclos de endurecimiento rápido y se mueven a un ritmo de 75 pb por reunión, la inflación persistente significa que sus tasas de política siguen siendo profundamente negativas en términos reales. De hecho, en septiembre, la tasa real al contado de los fondos federales todavía estaba por debajo del -5%, lo que supone que aún está muy lejos de los niveles que alcanzó durante la década inflacionaria de 1970.

Por su parte, en la Eurozona, el tipo real del BCE (tipo de interés menos inflación) tocó un mínimo histórico en septiembre, a pesar de los 125 pb de aumentos en los tipos que se ha visto hasta ahora, porque la inflación ha seguido incrementándose. Es más, aunque el BCE solo quisiese llevar los tipos hasta la zona neutral (el entorno del 2%), aunque le quedarían varias alzas del precio del dinero, eso en el escenario más conservador de subidas de tipos, puesto que para detener a la inflación, probablemente, el BCE se tendrá que adentrar en el terreno contractivo de la política monetaria, como han comenzado a señalar varios miembros del Consejo de Gobierno.

"Todo esto se encuentra aún muy lejos de las tasas reales fuertemente positivas que se utilizaron para controlar la inflación bajo el mandato de Paul Volcker como presidente de la Fed, y se suma a la posibilidad de que las presiones inflacionarias sean más fuertes de lo esperado en los próximos meses", advierte el economista de Deutsche Bank.

3. Las políticas gubernamentales siguen sirviendo para impulsar las presiones inflacionarias a medio plazo: 

"Actualmente, estamos experimentando un ciclo globalmente sincronizado de subidas de tipos. Pero la política fiscal está empujando en la otra dirección. Por ejemplo, Alemania anunció un importante paquete fiscal a finales de septiembre para limitar los precios de la gasolina, que fue uno de los factores que llevaron a nuestros economistas europeos a elevar sus expectativas de referencia para la tasa terminal del BCE", señala el informe del banco alemán.

"El impacto colectivo de estas políticas está presionando al alza la inflación. Además, los incentivos políticos siguen estando a favor de nuevas intervenciones, dada la reducción inusualmente grande del coste de vida a la que se enfrentan los consumidores, por lo que existe un riesgo subestimado de que las medidas de política fiscal ayuden a que la inflación se mantenga estructuralmente más alta".

4. La inflación (y la inflación subyacente) sigue siendo generalizada en toda la cesta de precios al consumidor:

 Cuando comenzó el aumento de la inflación en 2021, podría atribuirse razonablemente a algunos factores idiosincrásicos, como el aumento de los precios de la energía, los coches de segundo mano... Pero los últimos meses, la explicación de la inflación ha cambiado". En el caso de la Eurozona, buena parte sigue siendo culpa de la energía, la cuestión es que aún sea la energía, este componente no parece que vaya a dar respiro al Viejo Continente, más bien al revés, la energía se podría convertir en un factor estructural de la elevada inflación en la Eurozona.

En EEUU, la inflación también es reflejo del impacto de la vivienda, que es una variable rezagada. Pero incluso si observa el IPC subyacente, excluyendo la vivienda, entonces la inflación mensual en septiembre presentó el crecimiento elevadísimo (+0,45%). Mientras tanto, "los indicadores de inflación subyacente, como la media recortada, alcanzan máximos de varias décadas tanto en EEUU como en la zona del euro. Por lo tanto, ya no podemos depender solo de precios específicos para normalizar la inflación para que baje, puesto que se ha extendido mucho más", sostiene Allen.

5. Son los llamados precios 'pegajosos' son los que todavía están acelerando: 

Uno de los detalles más preocupantes del informe de inflación de EEUU de la semana pasada fue que el crecimiento mensual en la serie del IPC subyacente alcanzó su nivel más alto desde 1982, con un +0,68%... "El hecho de que esta serie ni siquiera se estabilice, sino que se acelere, es una mala noticia y aumenta la posibilidad de que la inflación no disminuya tan rápidamente como esperan los inversores en los próximos meses".

6. Al igual que en la década de 1970, choques aparentemente transitorios se han fusionado para mantener alta la inflación:

No podemos descartar que ocurran más. Al igual que el año pasado, las expectativas de consenso son que la inflación retrocederá en los siguientes 12 meses. Pero, ¿qué pasaría si un nuevo shock se suma al proceso de desanclaje de las expectativas de inflación?.

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

Neura.Blockchain@aol.com

+54911 5665 6060

Buenos Aires, October 18, 2022

La industria inalámbrica confiesa: "Ningún estudio muestra que el 5G sea seguro"...

A principios de febrero de 2019, el senador estadounidense Richard Blumenthal cuestionó a los representantes de la industria inalámbrica, quienes admitieron que la industria ha realizado CERO estudios de salud y seguridad sobre la tecnología 5G. Mientras tanto, docenas de estudios independientes indican que 5G es un riesgo para toda la vida biológica.

Durante la audiencia del Comité Senatorial de Comercio, Ciencia y Transporte de febrero de 2019 sobre el futuro de la tecnología inalámbrica 5G y su impacto en el pueblo y la economía estadounidenses, el senador estadounidense Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) expresó su preocupación por la falta de investigación científica y datos sobre los posibles riesgos para la salud de la tecnología.

Blumenthal criticó a la Comisión Federal de Comunicaciones (FCC) y la Administración de Alimentos y Medicamentos (FDA), agencias gubernamentales responsables conjuntamente de garantizar que las tecnologías de telefonía celular sean seguras de usar, por no realizar ninguna investigación sobre la seguridad de la tecnología 5G y, en cambio, participar en la burocracia, señalar con el dedo y diferir a la industria.

En diciembre de 2018, Blumenthal y el representante de EE. Anna G. Eshoo (CA-18) envió una carta al comisionado de la FCC, Brendan Carr, en busca de respuestas sobre los posibles riesgos para la salud que plantea la nueva tecnología inalámbrica 5G. En la audiencia, Blumenthal criticó a Carr por no proporcionar respuestas y, en cambio, simplemente se hizo eco de " las declaraciones generales de que la FDA comparte la responsabilidad reguladora de los teléfonos celulares con la FCC ". Blumenthal también criticó las declaraciones de la FDA como " bastante insatisfactorias."Un PDF de la respuesta completa de Carr está disponible aquí.

Durante un intercambio con representantes de la industria inalámbrica, Blumenthal les preguntó si habían apoyado la investigación sobre la seguridad de la tecnología 5G y los posibles vínculos entre la radiofrecuencia y el cáncer, y los representantes de la industria admitieron que no.

Blumenthal declaró:

Si visita el sitio web de la FDA, básicamente hay una cita rápida y una descripción de los datos científicos existentes que dicen: "La FDA ha establecido que la industria de los teléfonos celulares tome una serie de medidas, incluido el apoyo a investigaciones adicionales sobre los posibles efectos biológicos de los campos de radiofrecuencia para el tipo de señales emitidas por los teléfonos celulares. Creo que los estadounidenses merecen saber cuáles son los efectos en la salud, no prejuzgar lo que los estudios científicos pueden mostrar, y también merecen el compromiso de investigar los problemas pendientes."

"Entonces, mi pregunta para usted: ¿Cuánto dinero se ha comprometido la industria a apoyar la investigación independiente adicional, enfatizo la investigación independiente? ¿Está en curso esa investigación independiente? ¿Se ha completado alguna? ¿Dónde pueden mirar los consumidores? Y estamos hablando de la investigación sobre los efectos biológicos de esta nueva tecnología."

Al final del intercambio, Blumenthal concluyó:

Así que realmente no hay ninguna investigación en curso. Estamos volando a ciegas aquí, en lo que respecta a la salud y la seguridad."

En noviembre de 2018, el Programa Nacional de Toxicología publicó los resultados finales del estudio más largo y costoso hasta la fecha sobre teléfonos celulares y cáncer. Esos estudios encontraron "alguna evidencia" de un vínculo con el cáncer, al menos en ratas macho. Sin embargo, el estudio solo se centra en los riesgos asociados con los teléfonos celulares 2G y 3G.

La última tecnología inalámbrica 5G se basa en el uso de muchas más antenas y transmisores nuevos que se agrupan más cerca del suelo y más cerca de los hogares y las escuelas. Ha habido una investigación aún más limitada con respecto a las ramificaciones para la salud de la tecnología 5G, y hasta ahora la FCC no ha podido explicar adecuadamente cómo han determinado que 5G es seguro.

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

Neura.Blockchain@aol.com

+54911 5665 6060

Buenos Aires, October 17, 2022

The wireless industry confesses: "No study shows that 5G is safe"

The wireless industry confesses: "No study shows that 5G is safe"

At the beginning of February 2019, US Senator Richard Blumenthal questioned representatives of the wireless industry, who admitted that the industry has conducted ZERO health and safety studies on 5G technology. Meanwhile, dozens of independent studies indicate that 5G is a risk to all biological life.

During the February 2019 Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on the future of 5G wireless technology and its impact on the American people and economy, U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) expressed concern about the lack of any scientific research and data on the potential health risks of the technology.

Blumenthal criticized the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), government agencies jointly responsible for ensuring that cell phone technologies are safe to use, for not conducting any research on the safety of 5G technology, and instead, engaging in bureaucratic finger-pointing and deferring to the industry.

In December 2018, Blumenthal and U.S. Rep. UU. Anna G. Eshoo (CA-18) sent a letter to FCC commissioner Brendan Carr, in search of answers about the possible health risks posed by the new wireless technology 5G. At the hearing, Blumenthal criticized Carr for not providing answers and, instead, simply echoed " the general statements of the FDA shares regulatory responsibility of the cell phones with the FCC ". Blumenthal also criticized the FDA's statements as "pretty unsatisfactory." A PDF of Carr's full response is available here.

During an exchange with representatives of the wireless industry, Blumenthal asked them if they had supported research on the safety of 5G technology and the possible links between radio frequency and cancer, and industry representatives admitted that no.

Blumenthal stated:

If you visit the FDA website, there is basically a quick quote and surface of the existing scientific data that says: "The FDA has set the industry of cell phones to take a series of measures, including support additional research on possible biological effects of radio frequency fields for the type of signals emitted by cell phones. I think Americans deserve to know what the health effects are, not to prejudge what scientific studies may show, and they also deserve the commitment to investigate the outstanding issues."

"So my question to you: How much money has the industry committed to support additional independent research, I emphasize independent research? Is that independent investigation ongoing? Have any been completed? Where can consumers look? And we are talking about research on the biological effects of this new technology."

At the end of the exchange, Blumenthal concluded:

So there really isn't any investigation going on. We're kind of flying blind here, health and safety wise."

In November 2018, the National Toxicology Program released the final results of the longest and most expensive study to date on cell phones and cancer. Those studies found "some evidence" of a link to cancer, at least in male rats. However, the study only focuses on the risks associated with 2G and 3G cell phones.

The latest 5G wireless technology is based on the use of many more new antennas and transmitters that are grouped closer to the ground and closer to homes and schools. There has been even more limited research regarding the health ramifications of 5G technology, and so far the FCC has been unable to adequately explain how they have determined that 5G is safe. 

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

Neura.Blockchain@aol.com

+54911 5665 6060

Buenos Aires, July 12, 2022

What is really going on in the world? Energy crisis, financial risks and supply shortages?...

China:  La escasez de chips es el menor de los problemas: Se acerca la escasez de "absolutamente todo".

Hace tiempo que se habla de la escasez de chips, y cada vez son más componentes pasivos que empiezan a agotarse, mientras que las tierras raras que se utilizan suben de precio cada vez más, pero esto parece ser solo la punta de el iceberg, e indica que China empieza a sufrir las primeras consecuencias de una crisis energética que ya está afectando al país y que ejercerán aún más presión sobre las cadenas de suministro globales y generando una enorme escasez de "todo para todo el planeta". , además, lo es también, China tiene una decena de puertos marítimos cerrados hace un par de meses, lo que agravó la situación de abastecimientos para todo el planeta, la crisis energética, financiera y de abastecimientos de todo tipo, ya llegué, necesito saber cuándo golpear y dónde primero.

Más gigantes financieros que se ven gravemente afectados por la quiebra de la megaempresa china Evergrande, líder del mercado inmobiliario y de la construcción en China, además de poseer un centenar de bancos.

Recordando un poco más atrás, donde hubo una crisis bursátil y financiera (específicamente crediticia) que estalló en Estados Unidos a finales de 2007, pero sus efectos comenzaron a notarse a principios de 2008. Esto puso bajo presión a muchos países y empresas. y desencadenó otras crisis (por ejemplo, la deuda pública).

Hoy en China la historia se vuelve a repetir, pero China es financieramente gigante, lo que nadie se atreve a decir todavía, es que pasará, cuando caiga la primera ficha de dominó, ¿qué pasará después? ¿Cuáles serán las consecuencias, hasta donde cubrirá?...

Por lo pronto podemos pronosticar algunos eventos que están ocurriendo ahora, por ejemplo, los fondos de BlackRock, Vanguard y Fidelity sufren un éxodo por el temor de Evergrande, tres de las administradoras de fondos más grandes del mundo, han enfrentado fuertes salidas de carteras expuestas. a la deuda inmobiliaria china. Es decir, gran crack financiero y escasez mundial de todo, alimentos, sobre todo, un dólar en caída libre, el barril de Petróleo Brent (Mar del Norte) está a más de 80 dólares, crisis energética, sumando puntos a la crisis financiera, escasez de materias primas material y suministros de china al mundo, pero las decenas de puertos del mar de china cerraron, como consecuencia de agravar aún más el sistema de abastecimiento de materias primas y commodities en la cadena de distribución global, hasta ese grado de escasez, a llevarse a cabo, con respecto a los problemas arriba sitados? mientras,

UU.:  Se está gestando la mayor crisis económica desde 1929. De esta nueva crisis mental saldrá la tormenta perfecta, el nuevo sistema financiero QFS, eso es lo que se está denunciando, es la única salida, el cartel bancario, el babilónico. sistema de moneda fraccionaria, dinero falso, dinero de deuda, terminará para siempre, eso es un hecho.

Japón:  La alerta sanitaria por covid-19 se levantará el 1 de octubre, con vigencia en Tokio y otras 18 prefecturas del país el 1 de octubre, como estaba previsto, tras apreciarse una fuerte caída de casos diarios y de pacientes graves.

Suecia:  Prácticamente todas las restricciones, covid y vacunación se eliminarán el 1 de octubre. Sin pasaporte covid.

Noruega:  ha eliminado todas las restricciones, covid y vacunación. Sin pasaporte covid.

Francia:  Los franceses se oponen a los tiránicos pasaportes covid de Macron por undécima semana consecutiva.

España:  El Gobierno de Navarra dejará sin efecto a partir de este viernes 1 de octubre todas las medidas anticovid (referidas principalmente a horarios y aforos), ante la notable mejora de la situación epidemiológica de la Comunidad Foral, y después de que el Instituto de Salud Pública concluyera el período de circulación epidémica de covid-19.

Alejandro O. Asarabed Trucido

Neura.Blockchain@aol.com

+54911 5665 6060

Buenos Aires, 28 de junio de 2022

The biggest bubble in human history will explode...

 The year 2021 began with two downside risks for the world economy: that of inflation and that of the mutation of an economic crisis into a financial/banking crisis.

Some analysts publicly warned, read and called us catastrophists. Today the general level of prices is rising to 7% markedly above the European average and financial turbulence is already part of the public statements of several international bodies and, more importantly, of the indicators of risk and financial activity. A few weeks ago it was the IMF that began to warn about the situation. This very week it is already the ECB who, openly, talks about "exuberance", that is, indications of a bubble that is about to explode, in housing, commodities, supplies, debt and crypto assets, etc.

To give the reader an overview of the situation, the 2008 crisis was a shock in the housing market caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and aggravated by a high debt of families and construction companies. Now, in 2022, we are talking about not only a problem in the housing market, which de facto has already exploded in China also, with Evergrande Group, but, also and this is very important to know, are potential solvency issues in the business sector and the public sector. Cryptoassets, in my opinion, today is a niche segment in which, if there were systemic effects, they would be second-round.

What is evident is that the indicators of financial risk, even despite the sedation to which we have been subjecting them for the last few years, are on the rise and the risks are multiplying.

A situation that, moreover, is especially worrying, in an environment of economic stimuli at historically high levels and debt moratorium programs, which are covering up much of the solvency problems in the business sector, but do not eliminate them, they are simply sweeping under the carpet. Knowing this, it becomes especially worrying, in a context of clear weakness in the economic recovery and what has thrown in objective terms the pandemic, both in Europe and in the USA.

The business situation in Europe is very delicate. In the last year we have gone from a flat encephalogram, low business creation but also, low impact in terms of business solvency, to the other extreme, especially in some sectors. Specifically, the sectors associated with tourism and food are experiencing an explosion of bankruptcies and barely new openings. Others, such as transport or education, have much higher rates of mobility.

Therefore, a return to the restrictions after the breath of confidence that private agents have given to the public sector, would be not only a setback from which the economy, especially the European one, could hardly recover, but also, and this is very important, not having learned anything from it.

In this context of maximum uncertainty, the most vulnerable countries are the ones that have the most to lose and the first to launch warning signals, as is the case of Spain. In the last month, we have seen three particularly worrying indicators:

1) Target 2 credits, under special surveillance for having been unpaid for 30 days, have increased by 23% in the last year.

2) In the first 10 months of 2021, business bankruptcies have skyrocketed by 50%, despite the approved moratorium on ICO credits.

3) And the Spanish debt in the hands of the ECB already exceeds 50% of GDP. Specifically, there are already 400,000 million euros of the 1.4 trillion public debt that Spain maintains in the international financial markets. In other words: the size of Spain in the ECB balance sheet is dangerously close to the limit, which it has as statutes and we still do not know the situation of real demand in the financial markets.

The increase in interest rates required from companies and the reduction in bank credit has been a signal from Spain for many months. There were certain doubts, whether it was due to a situation of lack of solvent demand or lack of supply. At the moment, it seems, that it is in the first scenario, although from the first to the second it is only necessary that some of the indicators that I have just pointed out above and these make even more presence.

This situation, moreover, does not occur only in Spain. Even in the USA, one of the economies that first recovered GDP levels, occurred during the Trump administration of pre-crisis and the country that has best managed the recovery, also now, in the Biden era, a totally opposite situation is taking place, of a systematic worsening of the financial situation for the business segment. Proof of this is the increase in profitability required for bonds considered solvent (investment grade), which has already escalated too high, to June 2020.

In short, the large economies continue to look the other way in the face of the enormous problem that is accumulating in the financial sector. As we have already seen, it has not exploded in 2021, the biggest bubble in our history, but sooner or later it will. And when this happens, the consequences will be worse the longer it takes. As long as we continue to rely on the work of the central banks and to make up the situation with on-demand indicators, we will be delving into the next crisis.

The size of the hole is hardly predictable, although we do have clues. According to McKinsey, between 2000 and 2020 they have added twice the debt and four times more liabilities for each dollar of new net investment. And in this context, the whole planet is waiting for the storm to come.

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

Neura.Blockchain@aol.com

+54911 5665 60608

Buenos Aires, June 28, 2022