What is really going on in the world? Energy crisis, financial risks and supply shortages?...

China:  La escasez de chips es el menor de los problemas: Se acerca la escasez de "absolutamente todo".

Hace tiempo que se habla de la escasez de chips, y cada vez son más componentes pasivos que empiezan a agotarse, mientras que las tierras raras que se utilizan suben de precio cada vez más, pero esto parece ser solo la punta de el iceberg, e indica que China empieza a sufrir las primeras consecuencias de una crisis energética que ya está afectando al país y que ejercerán aún más presión sobre las cadenas de suministro globales y generando una enorme escasez de "todo para todo el planeta". , además, lo es también, China tiene una decena de puertos marítimos cerrados hace un par de meses, lo que agravó la situación de abastecimientos para todo el planeta, la crisis energética, financiera y de abastecimientos de todo tipo, ya llegué, necesito saber cuándo golpear y dónde primero.

Más gigantes financieros que se ven gravemente afectados por la quiebra de la megaempresa china Evergrande, líder del mercado inmobiliario y de la construcción en China, además de poseer un centenar de bancos.

Recordando un poco más atrás, donde hubo una crisis bursátil y financiera (específicamente crediticia) que estalló en Estados Unidos a finales de 2007, pero sus efectos comenzaron a notarse a principios de 2008. Esto puso bajo presión a muchos países y empresas. y desencadenó otras crisis (por ejemplo, la deuda pública).

Hoy en China la historia se vuelve a repetir, pero China es financieramente gigante, lo que nadie se atreve a decir todavía, es que pasará, cuando caiga la primera ficha de dominó, ¿qué pasará después? ¿Cuáles serán las consecuencias, hasta donde cubrirá?...

Por lo pronto podemos pronosticar algunos eventos que están ocurriendo ahora, por ejemplo, los fondos de BlackRock, Vanguard y Fidelity sufren un éxodo por el temor de Evergrande, tres de las administradoras de fondos más grandes del mundo, han enfrentado fuertes salidas de carteras expuestas. a la deuda inmobiliaria china. Es decir, gran crack financiero y escasez mundial de todo, alimentos, sobre todo, un dólar en caída libre, el barril de Petróleo Brent (Mar del Norte) está a más de 80 dólares, crisis energética, sumando puntos a la crisis financiera, escasez de materias primas material y suministros de china al mundo, pero las decenas de puertos del mar de china cerraron, como consecuencia de agravar aún más el sistema de abastecimiento de materias primas y commodities en la cadena de distribución global, hasta ese grado de escasez, a llevarse a cabo, con respecto a los problemas arriba sitados? mientras,

UU.:  Se está gestando la mayor crisis económica desde 1929. De esta nueva crisis mental saldrá la tormenta perfecta, el nuevo sistema financiero QFS, eso es lo que se está denunciando, es la única salida, el cartel bancario, el babilónico. sistema de moneda fraccionaria, dinero falso, dinero de deuda, terminará para siempre, eso es un hecho.

Japón:  La alerta sanitaria por covid-19 se levantará el 1 de octubre, con vigencia en Tokio y otras 18 prefecturas del país el 1 de octubre, como estaba previsto, tras apreciarse una fuerte caída de casos diarios y de pacientes graves.

Suecia:  Prácticamente todas las restricciones, covid y vacunación se eliminarán el 1 de octubre. Sin pasaporte covid.

Noruega:  ha eliminado todas las restricciones, covid y vacunación. Sin pasaporte covid.

Francia:  Los franceses se oponen a los tiránicos pasaportes covid de Macron por undécima semana consecutiva.

España:  El Gobierno de Navarra dejará sin efecto a partir de este viernes 1 de octubre todas las medidas anticovid (referidas principalmente a horarios y aforos), ante la notable mejora de la situación epidemiológica de la Comunidad Foral, y después de que el Instituto de Salud Pública concluyera el período de circulación epidémica de covid-19.

Alejandro O. Asarabed Trucido

Neura.Blockchain@aol.com

+54911 5665 6060

Buenos Aires, 28 de junio de 2022

The biggest bubble in human history will explode...

 The year 2021 began with two downside risks for the world economy: that of inflation and that of the mutation of an economic crisis into a financial/banking crisis.

Some analysts publicly warned, read and called us catastrophists. Today the general level of prices is rising to 7% markedly above the European average and financial turbulence is already part of the public statements of several international bodies and, more importantly, of the indicators of risk and financial activity. A few weeks ago it was the IMF that began to warn about the situation. This very week it is already the ECB who, openly, talks about "exuberance", that is, indications of a bubble that is about to explode, in housing, commodities, supplies, debt and crypto assets, etc.

To give the reader an overview of the situation, the 2008 crisis was a shock in the housing market caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and aggravated by a high debt of families and construction companies. Now, in 2022, we are talking about not only a problem in the housing market, which de facto has already exploded in China also, with Evergrande Group, but, also and this is very important to know, are potential solvency issues in the business sector and the public sector. Cryptoassets, in my opinion, today is a niche segment in which, if there were systemic effects, they would be second-round.

What is evident is that the indicators of financial risk, even despite the sedation to which we have been subjecting them for the last few years, are on the rise and the risks are multiplying.

A situation that, moreover, is especially worrying, in an environment of economic stimuli at historically high levels and debt moratorium programs, which are covering up much of the solvency problems in the business sector, but do not eliminate them, they are simply sweeping under the carpet. Knowing this, it becomes especially worrying, in a context of clear weakness in the economic recovery and what has thrown in objective terms the pandemic, both in Europe and in the USA.

The business situation in Europe is very delicate. In the last year we have gone from a flat encephalogram, low business creation but also, low impact in terms of business solvency, to the other extreme, especially in some sectors. Specifically, the sectors associated with tourism and food are experiencing an explosion of bankruptcies and barely new openings. Others, such as transport or education, have much higher rates of mobility.

Therefore, a return to the restrictions after the breath of confidence that private agents have given to the public sector, would be not only a setback from which the economy, especially the European one, could hardly recover, but also, and this is very important, not having learned anything from it.

In this context of maximum uncertainty, the most vulnerable countries are the ones that have the most to lose and the first to launch warning signals, as is the case of Spain. In the last month, we have seen three particularly worrying indicators:

1) Target 2 credits, under special surveillance for having been unpaid for 30 days, have increased by 23% in the last year.

2) In the first 10 months of 2021, business bankruptcies have skyrocketed by 50%, despite the approved moratorium on ICO credits.

3) And the Spanish debt in the hands of the ECB already exceeds 50% of GDP. Specifically, there are already 400,000 million euros of the 1.4 trillion public debt that Spain maintains in the international financial markets. In other words: the size of Spain in the ECB balance sheet is dangerously close to the limit, which it has as statutes and we still do not know the situation of real demand in the financial markets.

The increase in interest rates required from companies and the reduction in bank credit has been a signal from Spain for many months. There were certain doubts, whether it was due to a situation of lack of solvent demand or lack of supply. At the moment, it seems, that it is in the first scenario, although from the first to the second it is only necessary that some of the indicators that I have just pointed out above and these make even more presence.

This situation, moreover, does not occur only in Spain. Even in the USA, one of the economies that first recovered GDP levels, occurred during the Trump administration of pre-crisis and the country that has best managed the recovery, also now, in the Biden era, a totally opposite situation is taking place, of a systematic worsening of the financial situation for the business segment. Proof of this is the increase in profitability required for bonds considered solvent (investment grade), which has already escalated too high, to June 2020.

In short, the large economies continue to look the other way in the face of the enormous problem that is accumulating in the financial sector. As we have already seen, it has not exploded in 2021, the biggest bubble in our history, but sooner or later it will. And when this happens, the consequences will be worse the longer it takes. As long as we continue to rely on the work of the central banks and to make up the situation with on-demand indicators, we will be delving into the next crisis.

The size of the hole is hardly predictable, although we do have clues. According to McKinsey, between 2000 and 2020 they have added twice the debt and four times more liabilities for each dollar of new net investment. And in this context, the whole planet is waiting for the storm to come.

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

Neura.Blockchain@aol.com

+54911 5665 60608

Buenos Aires, June 28, 2022