2021/12/08

Bitcoin and the Big Bubble...

Warning: Bitcoin, is in the eye of the storm, this cryptocurrency is "one of the biggest bubbles" in history...

Bitcoin vs the bubbles of the past, Tulips, are back in fashion

I recommend investing money in cyclical values and diversify portfolios, that is the most logical, but also, I warn, investments are a Russian roulette, they are playing to bet and whoever does not know this, does not understand absolutely nothing, here we talk about that to bet or invest, we must be sure of the idle money for that purpose and know also, that there is a great possibility of losing it, otherwise, we will not be able to enter the game.

As a Consultant and Financial Analyst, I believe that Bitcoin directly to, among other criptomonedas are one of the largest bubbles in history, according to what we are seeing continuously, with referecnia to the acontesimientos of the last times, there are serious problems of economic and financial power in all the planet and other new major inconveniences caused and not end up well.

This whole issue of bitcoin, with other cryptocurrencies, is one of the biggest bubbles in history, as I said before, we had already discussed it with colleagues at Capital Trust at the time. This bubble will eventually burst and it will get very ugly, I warn you, it will be very hard.

In particular, I think that the bubble of digital assets, are comparable, with the bubble of punto.com.

What is the bubble of punto.com?, we refer to it as the period between 1997 and 2000. During this period there was a strong and enormous growth in the values of the assets of companies linked to the Internet. In this way, it caused a strong economic bubble that led to the bankruptcy of a large number of companies.

I remember in this period from 1998 to September 2001, I belonged to the group of Martin Progeressive, New York City, where we worked directly with investments of the Stock Market and the NASDAQ Composite Market.

In order to take a dimension of the size of the crisis, let's see the following, the NASDAQ index, came to quote in March of the year 2000, about 5000 points, then, not so long, to then collapse, in such a way that it came to quote at 3500 points, and finally, by October 2002 its value was around 1300 points, standing at values similar to those of December 1996.

When the bubble burst punto.com I must say it was coming, long time ago, but no one was willing to bet when such an event would happen, we always thought, it will be in a week? maybe in a month? really when? until I get that day finally and did the inevitable, all the actions that were worth like a billion dollars, and in contrast, if we take into account the inflation, the majority of those actions do not valian absolutely nothing, that is what happens when you give values irrational impulses immoderate that are in the game, it's an absurd game between the emotional and the irrational.

However, I do not rule out the possibility that the price of bitcoin will grow due to excess liquidity in the financial square. There's too much money out there that can be channeled into this market. It has already become the casino, ever larger, colossal and unstoppable."

As an Advisor and Financial Analyst, I recommend investing money in cyclical securities and always diversifying portfolios, if possible, with a long-term view of at least 16 to 18 months, obvious reasons are everywhere. The cyclical trade is the long-term game, because it is estimated, that things will continue to improve, always in the long term", also another option and is what I like the most, are the support of investment in hard assets, such as gold and silver, although it is a very complex market even, because as few know, the markets are manipulated all the time, for that reason I always say, that investments are a Russian roulette or a bet, because it is very difficult to pre-tell short-term events, against reason and the emotional.

This bubble is in everything and in all the assets of the planet, we turned many into geniuses and gurus in recent years, while the bubble of the late 90s, was much narrower and the enthusiasm in the assets of those times responded, in part, to the great potential of the effects of the internet.

Also another factor that is affecting this problem, is the Federal Reserve, which is inflating the bubble indirectly, with the so-called stimulus, the Fed in this way, was inflating the big bubble, as we warned some time ago, just a few months ago. Expansionary policies, coupled with high debt and fiscal deficits and negative rates, threaten the long-term health of the dollar... what are we seeing today? a dollar in a free fall. Definitely, the problem was clearly identified, it is none other than Jerome Powell and the rest of the world's central bankers.

It happens that there is a lack of confidence brutal and this is getting tragic, but note, as they come down all the bags, the collapse is large, we add now, the situation of risk in the economy of China, this walking on the razor's edge, flooding, problems of a deficit of energy, the collapse of the construction companies of China and their policies unethical applied with reference to the schema Ponci, then, we obtain, bankruptcies and falling free from many companies such as Evergrande, and some other more, now, again, for breach of payment obligations, then we see in a short time what is coming, it is nothing promising.

Now, I have no doubt, that we are in a pathological mania, addressing all the assets of the planet and the risks of concentrating investment in a short-term approach, this leads to a disastrous crisis, all this has to do, with the fact that many investors, live in the present, which is an incorrect stance and a prominent long-term disaster.

Investors should look to the near future when deciding their trades and thus avoid the creation of these bubbles. Every event in the world affects something in particular. This is the reason and against part, to imagine the world with a long-term vision, it is necessary and essential, we are talking about a period of up to 18 months, it is reasonable, no more, so that you can identify or speculate, the values of assets in the future, with a somewhat more accurate reference, in reference to the values of assets today.

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

+54911 5665 60608
Buenos Aires, Dicember 7, 2021

Elon Musk sells Tesla shares to profit from its rise, it is the largest bubble that has been seen...

Elon Musk is not selling Tesla shares because he is short of cash; he simply wants to take advantage of the valuation of the automaker, according to Michael Burry on Twitter.

"Let's face it. @elonmusk borrowed against 88.3 million shares, sold all of his mansions, moved to Texas, and is asking @BernieSanders if he should sell more shares. You don't need cash. He just wants to sell TESLA," Burry said.

The investor in the film The Big Bet pointed out last week that Musk has taken personal loans against his shares, and suggested that the CEO of Tesla might be selling shares to pay those debts.

Musk recently pledged to sell 10% of its Tesla shares based on the results of a Twitter survey, and quickly cashed in nearly $ 7 billion (around € 6.1 billion) in shares last week.

Burry's tweet highlights that Musk reduced his tax bill by moving from California to Texas last year, sold most of his $ 100 million real estate portfolio, and assured Senator Bernie Sanders Sunday that he would sell more shares at the legislator's request.

Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, challenges the UN: he questions that 5.2 billion, 2% of his current fortune, can help eradicate hunger in the world

The investor's opinion is that Musk does not need cash, but wants to benefit from the fact that the Tesla stock price has multiplied almost 12 times since the beginning of last year.

Tesla and Scion have not responded immediately to Business Insider's requests for feedback.

In another tweet, the head of Scion Asset Management highlighted Tesla's stock chart, and the fact that Musk tweeted that the stock price was "too high" when the electric vehicle company's valuation was less than a fifth of its current level. "Just think about it," he said.

It is important to note that Burry stated in December 2020, that he was trading short on Tesla, and that Scion had bearish sell options on the stock in June of this year.

The investor told CNBC last month that he was no longer betting against Musk's company, but that may have changed now, especially since the 15% slump in Tesla's stock price last week was attributed in part to a Business Insider report highlighting Burry's theory of selling Musk shares.

Burry has repeatedly singled out Tesla as the emblem of a huge asset bubble. He called its stock price "ridiculous" in December 2020, predicted earlier this year that stocks would collapse like the mid-2000s real estate market, and suggested that stocks could plummet 90% as did Amazon and other high-flying tech stocks when the dotcom bubble burst.

Cryptos, Bubbles and Bonuses:

Burry has said he knows he should not bet against the rise of cryptocurrencies, and warns that assets are more overvalued today than during dotcom or housing bubbles, and hinted last Sunday in a tweet he has now deleted that he is betting on long-term government bonds.

The investor of the film 'The big Bet' warns that the stock market boom reminds him more and more of the dotcom bubble

"By the way, I have never shorted any cryptocurrency," he said. "This is my third bubble, and the biggest. I've learned a few things in all this time. 30-year treasury bills, for example..."

Burry jokingly asked how to cut short on cryptocurrencies in a tweet in October, and later told CNBC that that asset class is in a bubble.

However, he added that he sees value in the blockchain and non-fungible tokens (NFT), and has even made a small foray into the crypto world by buying some tokens.

The Scion chief's tweet suggests he might have taken a short stand against 30-year treasury bonds, probably because he hopes rising inflation will force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, driving bond prices down.

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

+54911 5665 60608
Buenos Aires, Dicember 7, 2021

Elon Musk vende acciones de Tesla para beneficiarse de su subida, es la mayor burbuja que se ha visto...

Elon Musk no está vendiendo acciones de Tesla porque esté falto de efectivo; simplemente quiere sacar provecho de la valoración del fabricante de automóviles, según ha asegurado en Twitter Michael Burry.

"Afrontémoslo. @elonmusk pidió prestado contra 88,3 millones de acciones, vendió todas sus mansiones, se mudó a Texas, y está preguntando a @BernieSanders si debería vender más acciones. No necesita dinero en efectivo. Sólo quiere vender TESLA", decía Burry.

El inversor de la película La gran apuesta señalaba la semana pasada que Musk ha tomado préstamos personales contra sus acciones, y sugería que el CEO de Tesla podría estar vendiendo acciones para pagar esas deudas. 

Musk se comprometió recientemente a vender el 10% de sus acciones de Tesla basándose en los resultados de una encuesta en Twitter, y rápidamente cobró casi 7.000 millones de dólares (alrededor de 6.100 millones de euros) en acciones la semana pasada.

El tuit de Burry destaca que Musk redujo su factura fiscal al mudarse de California a Texas el año pasado, vendió la mayor parte de su cartera inmobiliaria de 100 millones de dólares y aseguró el domingo al senador Bernie Sanders que vendería más acciones a petición del legislador. 

Elon Musk, el hombre más rico del mundo, desafía a la ONU: cuestiona que 5.200 millones, el 2% de su fortuna actual, puedan ayudar a erradicar el hambre en el mundo

La opinión del inversor es que Musk no necesita dinero en efectivo, sino que quiere beneficiarse de que el precio de las acciones de Tesla se haya multiplicado casi por 12 desde principios del año pasado.

Tesla y Scion no han respondido inmediatamente a las solicitudes de comentarios de Business Insider.

En otro tuit, el jefe de Scion Asset Management destacaba el gráfico de las acciones de Tesla, y el hecho de que Musk tuiteara que el precio de las acciones era "demasiado alto" cuando la valoración de la compañía de vehículos eléctricos era menos de una quinta parte de su nivel actual. "Sólo hay que pensarlo", decía. 

Es importante señalar que Burry declaró en diciembre de 2020, que estaba operando en corto en Tesla, y que Scion tenía opciones de venta bajistas sobre la acción en junio de este año.

El inversor comentó a la CNBC el mes pasado que ya no apostaba contra la compañía de Musk, pero eso puede haber cambiado ahora, especialmente porque el desplome del 15% en el precio de las acciones de Tesla la semana pasada se atribuyó en parte a una información de Business Insider que destacaba la teoría de Burry sobre la venta de acciones de Musk.

Burry ha señalado repetidamente a Tesla como emblema de una enorme burbuja de activos. Calificó el precio de sus acciones de "ridículo" en diciembre de 2020, predijo a principios de este año que las acciones se derrumbarían como el mercado inmobiliario de mediados de la década de 2000, y sugirió que las acciones podrían desplomarse un 90% como lo hicieron Amazon y otras acciones tecnológicas de alto vuelo cuando estalló la burbuja de las puntocom.

Criptos, Burbujas y Bonos:

Burry ha dicho que sabe que no debe apostar contra el auge de las criptomonedas, y advierte que los activos están más sobrevalorados hoy que durante las burbujas de las puntocom o de la vivienda, e insinuaba el pasado domingo en un tuit que ahora ha borrado, que está apostando por los bonos del Estado a largo plazo.

El inversor de la película 'La gran apuesta' avisa de que el boom bursátil le recuerda cada vez más a la burbuja de las puntocom

"Por cierto, nunca he puesto en corto ninguna criptomoneda", puntualizó. "Esta es mi tercera burbuja, y la más grande. He aprendido un par de cosas en todo este tiempo. Los bonos del Tesoro a 30 años, por ejemplo..."

Burry preguntó en broma cómo ponerse en corto con las criptomonedas en un tuit en octubre, y más tarde comentó a la CNBC que esa clase de activos está en una burbuja. 

Sin embargo, añadió que ve valor en el blockchain y en los tokens no fungibles (NFT), e incluso ha hecho una pequeña incursión en el mundo cripto comprando algunos tokens.

El tuit del jefe de Scion sugiere que podría haber tomado una posición corta contra los bonos del Tesoro a 30 años, probablemente porque espera que el aumento de la inflación obligue a la Reserva Federal a subir los tipos de interés, haciendo caer los precios de los bonos.

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

+54911 5665 60608
Buenos Aires, Dicember 7, 2021

El Bitcoin y la Gran Burbuja...

Advertencia: Bitcoin, esta en el ojo de la tormenta, esta criptomoneda es "una de las mayores burbujas" de la historia...


Recomiendo invertir dinero en los valores ciclicos y diversificar carteras, eso es lo mas logico, pero ademas, advierto, las inversiones son una ruleta rusa, estan jugando a apostar y el que no sabe esto, no entiende absolutamente nada, aqui hablamos de que para apostar o invertir, debemos de estar seguros del dinero ocioso para tal fin y saber ademas, que hay una gran posibilidad de perderlo, de lo contrario, no podremos entrar en el juego.

Como Asesor y Analista Financiero, creo que Bitcoin directamente, entre otras criptomonedas son, una de las mayores burbujas de la historia, según lo que estamos viendo continuamente, con referecnia a los acontesimientos de los ultimos tiempos, hay graves problemas, de orden economico y financiero en todo el planeta y otros nuevos grandes inconvenientes provocados y que no terminaran bien. 

Todo este asunto del bitcóin, con otras criptomonedas, son una de las mayores burbujas de la historia, como dije antes, ya lo habiamos discutido con colegas de Capital Trust en su momento. Esta burbuja va a terminar por estallar y la cosa se pondrá muy fea, advierto, va a ser muy duro. 

Particularmente, pienso que la burbuja de activos digitales, son comparable, con la burbuja de las punto.com.

Que es la burbuja de las punto.com?, nos referimos a ella, como el periodo comprendido entre 1997 y 2000. Durante dicho periodo se produjo un fuerte y descomunal crecimiento de los valores de los activos de las empresas vinculadas a Internet.  Llegando de este modo, a provocar una fuerte burbuja económica que llevó a la quiebra a una gran cantidad de empresas.

Recuerdo en este periodo desde 1998 a septiembre de 2001, yo pertenecia a la grupo de Martin Progeressive, New York City, donde trabajabamos directamente con inversiones del Mercado Bursatil y del Mercado NASDAQ Composite.

A efectos de tomar una dimensión del tamaño de la crisis, veamos lo siguiente, el índice NASDAQ, llegó a cotizar en marzo del año 2000, sobre los 5000 puntos, luego, no paso tanto tiempo, para luego desplomarse, de tal forma que llego a cotizar en los 3500 puntos, ya finalmente, para octubre de 2002 su valor rondaba los 1300 puntos, situándose en valores similares a los de diciembre de 1996.

Cuando estalló la burbuja punto.com, debo decir que se veia venir, hacia mucho tiempo, pero nadie se animaba a apostar cuando sucederia tal evento, siempre pensabamos, sera en una semana?, tal vez en un mes?, realmente cuando?, hasta que llego ese dia finalmente y ocurrio lo inevitable, todas aquellas acciones que valían como un billón de dólares y en contraste de ello, si tenemos en cuenta la inflación, la mayoría de esas acciones no valian absolutamente nada, eso es lo que sucede cuando se dan valores irracionales, por los impulsos desmedidos de los que estan en el juego, es un juego absurdo entre lo emocional y lo irracional. 

No obstante, no descarto la posibilidad de que el precio del bitcóin crezca debido al exceso de liquidez en la plaza financiera. Hay demasiado dinero ahí fuera que puede canalizarse hacia este mercado. Se ha convertido ya en el casino, cada vez mas grande, de forma colosal e imparable". 
Como Asesor y Analista Financiero, recomiendo invertir dinero en los valores cíclicos y diversificar siemrpe las carteras, en lo posible, con miras a largo plazos como minimo de 16 a 18 meses, razones obvias hay por doquier. El comercio cíclico es el juego a largo plazo, porque se estima, que las cosas van a seguir mejorando, siempre a largo plazo", tambien otra opcion y es lo que mas me gusta, son el respaldo de inversion en activos duros, como el oro y la plata, aunque es un mercado muy complejo aun, porque como pocos saben, los mercados son manipulados todo el tiempo, por esa razon siempre digo, que las inversiones son una ruleta rusa o una apuesta, porque es muy dificil preedecir los acontecimientos a corto plazo, en contra de la razon y lo emocional. 

Esta burbuja está en todo y en todos los activos del planeta, convertimos en genios y en gurues a muchos en los últimos años, mientras que la burbuja de finales de la década de los 90, era mucho más estrecha y el entusiasmo en los activos de esos tiempos respondía, en parte, al gran potencial de los efectos de internet.

Tambien otro factor que esta incidiendo en este problema, es la Reserva Federal, que está inflando la burbuja de forma indirecta, con los llamados estímulo, la Fed de esta manera, estaba inflando la gran burbuja, tal y como ya advertimos hace un tiempo atrás, apenas unos meses. Las políticas expansivas, junto a las elevadas deudas y déficit fiscal y ademas las tasas negativas, ponen en peligro la salud del dólar a largo plazo... que estamos viendo hoy?, un dolar en caida libre. Definitivamente, el problema fue  claramente identificado, es nada menos que Jerome Powell y el resto de los banqueros centrales del mundo. 

Sucede que hay una falta de confianza brutal y esto se esta poniendo trágico, sino fijense, como vienen en caida todas las bolsas, el desplome es grande, sumemos ahora, la situacion de riesgo de la economia de China, esta caminando en el filo de la navaja, las inundaciones, problemas de deficit energetico, la caida de las empresas constructoras de China y sus politicas poco eticas aplicadas con referencia al esquema Ponci, entonces, obtenemos, quiebras y caidas libres de muchas empresas como Evergrande y algunas otras mas, ahora nuevamente por incumplir pagos y obligaciones, entonces vemos en poco tiempo lo que se avecina, no es nada prometedor.

Ahora bien, no tengo ninguna duda, de que estamos en una manía patológica, abordando todos los activos del planeta y los riesgos de concentrar la inversión en un enfoque a corto plazo, esto conlleva a una crisis desastrosa, todo esto tiene que ver, con el hecho de que muchos inversores, viven el presente, que es una postura incorrecta y un prominente desastre a largo plazo.

Los inversores deberían observar el futuro cercano a la hora de decidir sus operaciones y así, evitar la creación de estas burbujas. Cada evento en el mundo afecta a algo en particular. Este es el motivo y contra parte, para imaginar el mundo con una visión a largo plazo, es necesario y primordial, estamos hablando de un periodo de hasta 18 meses, es razonable, no mas, de tal manera que pueda identificar o especular, los valores de los activos a futuro, con referencia un tanto mas acertada, en referencia a los valores de los activos de hoy.  

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

+54911 5665 60608
Buenos Aires, Dicember 7, 2021

2021/11/24

QFS puts an end to the fraudulent fractional reserve banking and monetary system (QFS-Quantum Financial System)...

End of the decline of the old fnancial fractional reserve system, money-debt system.

° The deep state financing scam

° Real money converted into fake money

° Stimulus is a fraud

° Taxpayers ' money is laundered through private property tax offices.

° The corrupt fractional money-debt system makes us live like medieval servants.

The banking system was a fantastic business for 250 years, since it was created in 1760 by Amshel Mayer Rothschild, but no longer, the system lent money they did not have and charged the lender interest on it, to which were added the "fractional reserve loan" that allowed banks to lend ten times more than they had deposited. This is simply called: SCAM...

In other words, they lent "money" that they didn't have and didn't physically exist because they didn't have any hard backing to pounce on it, appropriately called credit or debt money, with interest charges attached.

In a fraudulent monetary system, debt in real terms becomes impossible to pay, while the settlement of the required debt can only be achieved by devaluing the currency, i.e. inflation, in other words, theft.

Fake money rewards dark cliques of special interests, more closely associated with money managers:

° As the Deep State

° Banking industry

° The military industrial complex

° The Bigpharma

° All corporatocracies

° Wall Street

° The Vatican (who launders dirty money from the globalist elites through the Ambrosian bank)

° The infinite beneficiaries of public spending.

The unfair distribution of wealth is a characteristic of a ”fiduciary” monetary system and is observed today at its end. For example, the three richest people on Earth own more than 60% of the money of the world's population. Fiat money doesn't like morality, but it creates immoral societies. It requires the rejection of a convertible commodity standard and can only be enforced with powerful legal tender laws.

Economic bubbles are created artificially, by those who own fiat money, central bank manipulation of money supply and interest rates. A fiat currency eliminates a definable accounting unit, necessary for a sound economic calculation.

Most importantly, the central bank's global financial debt system is being pushed to the point of deflation, which will force the Deep State to relinquish its global control. The fiduciary financial system will be replaced by local currencies, i.e. units of sovereign money backed by gold, which will be executed through the QFS. This will be the basis for the Post-Fiduciary or Fiat world, the answer is GESARA.

Recovering from the damage caused by fiat currencies will be far more difficult than rejecting the temptation to start a fiat currency as a unit of account in the first place. Honest money is the essential ally of freedom. Precious metals should and will again serve as the basis for the new QFS system.

Around the world, people are waking up to the fact that the current money-debt (fiat money) economic system is unsustainable and bankers are quietly and secretly preparing for the worst. Governments will do what they always did in every financial crisis, protect the banks and all those within the system who belong to the Deep State.

The citizens of the middle class and poor, are already suffering the consequences of the financial and monetary system corrupt, organizing the running of the bulls to break all the economies around the globe, by means of mandates draconian and Orwellianos, the WHO, the UN and the IMF, the Big Pharma, the CDC, the governments of each country, together with the relevant ministries of health and with the consent of politicians, doctors, health centers, means of communication, mass, all are directly responsible for a form or another, in the framework of the Plandemia of 2020, so that, the middle and lower classes are struggling to find the best way to protect their wealth and ensure their security in these difficult times, not to mention that most are in a miserable shortage because of what has already been exposed. The unfolding of the greatest financial fraud in history and the greatest bubble is now upon us.

People must understand that they are living with a criminal private central banking system and totally unfair to their government as a partner. What is observed is nothing other than to let us all live as medieval “servants”. It is therefore vital that all private Central Banks be abolished at all costs and that legislation be enacted to ensure that no such bank is re-established in the future.

Clarification: All the central banks of all the countries of the planet, including the Federal Reserve, belonged to the Rothschild Family.

The Deep State funding scam:

The plan is not just to go after the shadow Government and the Deep State, but to go after the source of their funding that has made it possible for them to do what they do; to print easy money and corrupt. In short; Rothschild-controlled central banks print money out of thin air, governments borrow it with added usury, and let taxpayers finance this fraud.

Central banks are not tied to any control audits, so they can do whatever they want. Applying accounting practices that do not account for the money they have created. And as you can see, the entire economic system is rapidly deteriorating. President Trump continually and correctly points the finger at the Federal Reserve. He argues that they allow the economy to slide into recession, and constantly repeats that what the Fed is doing is wrong, insinuating that this will be the reason why if the economy weakens, eventually falls to a thousand pieces, the Central Banks are to blame.

Look at the current economy, people will see that all sales are running out. Car sales are down 20 %. Also new home sales are disintegrating in several areas with a downward trend of 8% month-to-month. Meanwhile, sales prices in many regions have fallen between 20 and 35% and if we see the rate in different countries this settles much more since a year ago. in consequence, coupled with the shortage of supplies and raw material, it can be noted since the great inflacioin associated to this particular fact, the fuel, between 2.5 and 8.7%, depending on the state, the food, the values of inflation ranging between 1.8 and 3.6 %, depending on the state and/or county, this is burtal and still not arrived in the time of the year-end holidays, that happen? nobody has the crystal ball, all I can say is that this bubble will explode and it will be the last and it will be as well, like no other crisis created. This is a complete and total disaster, even worse after the Fed lowered the interest rate to zero, which affects retirees in the first place.

Real money turned into fake money:

In the depression of the 30s what mattered was the money supply, but after Nixon in 1972 abolished the gold backing for the US dollar, he changed the “real money “to”fake credit/debt money". So now, it's not the money supply that matters, it's the credit supply/amount of debt created. As long as credit rises at a healthy rate below 2%, which means inflation and is nothing more than a simple theft by the government, markets and GDP rise. When the demand for credit does not increase, a recession and falling markets are expected. The idea behind QE (*) was to provide more credit money, but as there was no market for it, QE became a useless tool, since QE (*) does not create additional lending capacity.

(*) QE corresponds to a series of measures used by Central Banks to increase the monetary base, injecting liquidity into the reserves of the banking system.

Quality assessment cannot effectively create a new volume of loans. To put it as simply as possible. Reserves are bank assets. Loans are limited by available capital. QE changes assets but does not alter capital. If the Central Bank buys $ 2.6 trillion in treasury bonds from the non-governmental sector, the non-governmental sector sells $ 2.6 trillion in treasury bonds to the Central Bank. Giving the impression that the central bank of the Federal Reserve "injected" 2.6 trillion dollars in liquidity into the system. Despite this, the net effect remains zero.

Therefore, to say that a bank can go to Goldman Sachs and leverage the $ 2.6 trillion as if it were something new is not correct. They could do so before using Treasury securities as collateral

The idea that excess reserves point to future hyperinflation is also absurd. The assumption is that the banking system will somehow "lend" these excess reserves. That can't happen, it's impossible. Banks as a whole cannot lend reserves, period. Even very intelligent people are wrong in this concept.

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

+54911 5665 60608
Buenos Aires, November 24, 2021

Blockchain, the Technology that will Revolutionize Finance...

If we hear the word "Blockchain," we quickly relate it to the implicit technology of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. However, this technology has many other applications, in finance and other sectors.

For 20 years to the present time, we have lived in the Internet of information, the free flow of information throughout the planet. Many experts predict that the next revolution of the network will be generated by the blockchain, the Internet of value, which allows value sharing (titles, files, patents and others) in a digital, decentralized (without the need for a central authority) and totally reliable way.

Blockchain, the digital trust:

The Blockchain is primarily a record, a ledger of digital data that is shared among many other different parties. Its essence is that once any information is entered, it can never be deleted or modified, being permanently recorded.

We can consider Blockchain as a distributed database (multiple databases related to each other), which allows to execute transactions between two or more parties in a verifiable, transparent and permanent way.

The blockchain generates a total consensus among its users, all participants have a copy of it. Therefore, Blockchain enables trust in any type of business relationship.

Main features of Blockchain:

Blockchain technology has the following advantages, essential in any economic transaction:

Security: Absolutely nothing can be modified or deleted, only added progressively. That means that once the transaction is done you cannot manipulate the system dishonestly.

Transparent: It is a record or "general ledger" in which the different transactions made are stored, you can only access to consult, without being able to modify those transactions. The veracity of the information is therefore guaranteed.

Trust: In decentralization and the lack of a central node where all the information is gathered, makes the parties involved fully trust this technology.

Cost and time savings: Significantly reduces the tasks of recording and controlling data in transactions. The blockchain avoids record duplications, only one record regardless of the number of participants (without Blockchain, if there are three participants it means that each of the three parties makes the record of the transaction).

Real-time transaction: Its immediacy (considering that there are no timeouts) minimizes the risk of counter-party produced in other transactions where the payment commitment it takes several days to execute (avoiding risks of non-payment, bankruptcy, fraud, etc... throughout the payment process).

On the other hand, its drawbacks stem from blockchain problems with scalability. The Scalability of a system is the ability to grow in volume and manage the increasing workload. In Blockchain, scalability is measured through transactions that can be processed in a given time.

Scalability issues can be slow compared to other centralized systems (most payment systems). Each block that is created has a certain limit of transactions, if in a time interval many transactions enter, the waiting times increase.

Another problem with this technology is the issue of regulation, it is not known what type of regulation the Central Banks (Europe and the United States) will undertake in the future regarding this technology applied to finance.

Blockchain applications in finance:

As we mentioned initially, the blockchain does not only have application in cryptocurrencies. Here are some of the possibilities offered by blockchain in finance:

Smart contracts:

One of the most important developments of Blockchain was made by the Ethereum Blockchain, through smart contracts or Smart-Contract. Smart contracts are applications that operate as computer programs and run through Blockchain, in a decentralized way.

To simplify, a Smart-Contract is a software code that will be executed by itself under certain circumstances agreed between the parties in advance. They usually include a financial transaction. For example, if the value of oil falls to a fixed price, an amount of money is invested in a certain share, just as Stop Loss works in the International Currency Market.

Smart contracts will provide financial services in the future without the need for intermediaries.

They have endless possibilities: Online voting systems, Insurance, Betting.

Smart-Contracts incorporate the main features that Blockchain (immutability, security and transparency).

Perpetual Identity:

Digital identification is becoming more and more important in the financial world. Being sure that a user is really the holder of a digital financial contract is vital. With all this, the introduction of a personal identity (Passport, deed) in Blockchain guarantees the veracity of the identification.

Some experts say that in the near future there will be a blockchain accessible to all financial stakeholders, where it will be possible to obtain digital identification. Thus, once the ID has been entered in that registry or blockchain, any bank or fintech will be able to access the ID (with the user's authorization). Therefore, any user will only need to enter their ID or passport once.

Digital payments, Stellar or Ripple:

There are very efficient digital currencies in international payments and micropayments:

Ripple: It specializes in cross-border payments (payments between different countries). Ripple's system is designed for financial institutions and payment providers around the world. This technology prevents cross-border transactions from going through intermediaries.

Stellar: It is an ideal platform for micropayments, due to its speed, low commissions and equal treatment between users.

Some financial institutions are starting to develop processes through Blockchain in various business areas.

Issuance of securities and digital assets:

Blockchain allows companies to issue digital securities or assets(a property, a financial asset, a cryptocurrency...). Once the assets are entered into the Blockchain, they can be traded between different companies. This transmission of digital assets facilitates trade and collaboration between companies.

Other Blockchain financial developments:

Without a doubt, cryptocurrencies is the sector where the blockchain has been most developed. Blockchain technology was born as the essence of bitcoin and is currently present in most digital currencies.

Other financial areas have also found solutions in the blockchain. For example, the US stock market, Nasdaq, uses Blockchain on its private stock market.

Blockchain, the technology that will revolutionize the Internet:

At first, Blockchain began in the shadow of bitcoin, but little by little, the blockchain has been implanted in different sectors (finance, medicine, food...). Many governments and multinationals are taking positions on blockchain, investing millions of euros to implement this technology in their organizations.

For years, the "Internet of connectivity and information" has changed the way we live, think and relate. For many, blockchain along with new digital developments (Big Data, IoT, Artificial Intelligence, cognitive system...), will be part of the next digital revolution. Actually, Blockchain will allow sharing value (titles, files, patents...) in a digital and decentralized way in most economic sectors.

Thus, the development of the blockchain is not directly related to the evolution of digital currencies. Despite the questions of cryptocurrencies, we can catalog Blockchain as a technology that will revolutionize the digital world.

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

+54911 5665 60608
Buenos Aires, November 24, 2021

Blockchain, la Tecnología que Revolucionará las Finanzas...

Si escuchamos la palabra «Blockchain», rápidamente lo relacionamos con la tecnología implícita de las criptomonedas, sobre todo con Bitcoin. Sin embargo, esta tecnología tiene muchas otras aplicaciones, en las finanzas y en otros sectores.

Desde hace 20 años hasta nuestros tiempos, hemos vivido en el Internet de la información, la libre circulación de información en todo el planeta. Muchos expertos pronostican que la próxima revolución de la red será generada por la cadena de bloques, el Internet del valor, que permite compartir valor (títulos, archivos, patentes y otros) de una forma digital, descentralizada (sin necesidad de una autoridad central) y totalmente confiable.

Blockchain, la confianza digital:

La cadena de bloques o Blockchain es principalmente un registro, un libro mayor de datos digitales que es compartido entre otras  muchas partes diferentes. Su esencia es que una vez introducida cualquier información, nunca podra ser borrada o modificada, quedando registrada permanentemente.

Podemos considerar a Blockchain como una base de datos distribuida (múltiples bases de datos relacionadas entre sí), que permite ejecutar transacciones entre dos o más partes de forma verificable, transparente y permanente.

La cadena de bloques genera un consenso total entre sus usuarios, todos los participantes tienen una copia de ella. Por tanto, Blockchain posibilita la confianza en cualquier tipo de relación comercial.

Principales características de Blockchain:

La tecnología Blockchain tiene las siguientes ventajas, esenciales en cualquier transacción económica:

Seguridad: No se puede modificar ni borrar absolutamente nada, solo añadir progresivamente. Eso significa que una vez hecha la transacción no puede manipular el sistema deshonestamente.

Transparente: Es un registro o “libro mayor” en el que se van almacenando las diferentes transacciones realizadas, solo se puede acceder a consultar, sin poder modificar esas transacciones. Se garantiza, por tanto, la veracidad de la información.

Confianza: En la descentralización y al no disponer de un nodo central donde se aglutine toda la información, hace que las partes intervinientes confíen plenamente en esta tecnología.

Ahorro de costes y tiempo: Reduce considerablemente las tareas de registro y control de datos en las transacciones. La cadena de bloques evita duplicaciones de registro, solo un registro independientemente del número de intervinientes (sin Blockchain, si hay tres intervinientes supone que cada una de las tres partes haga el registro de la transacción).

Transacciones en tiempo real: Su inmediatez (considerando que no hay tiempos de espera) minimiza el riesgo de contra-parte producido en otras transacciones, donde el compromiso de pago tarda varios días en ejecutarse (evitando riesgos de impago, concursos de acreedores, fraudes, etc… durante todo el proceso de pago).                                             

Por otra parte, sus inconvenientes nacen de los problemas de la cadena de bloques con la escalabilidad. La Escalabilidad de un sistema es la capacidad de crecer en volumen y gestionar el aumento creciente del trabajo. En Blockchain, la escalabilidad se mide a través de las transacciones que se pueden procesar en un tiempo determinado.

Los problemas de escalabilidad pueden generar lentitud respecto a otros sistemas centralizados (la mayoría de sistemas de pago). Cada bloque que se crea tiene un límite determinado de transacciones, si en un intervalo de tiempo entran muchas transacciones aumentan los tiempos de espera.

Otro de los problemas que se le presenta a esta tecnología es el tema de la regulación, no se sabe qué tipo de regulación acometerán los Bancos Centrales (Europa y Estados Unidos) en un futuro respecto a esta tecnología aplicada a las finanzas.

Aplicaciones de Blockchain en las finanzas:

Como comentábamos inicialmente, la cadena de bloques no solo tiene aplicación en las criptomonedas. Estas son algunas de las posibilidades que ofrece la cadena de bloques en las finanzas:

Contratos inteligentes:

Uno de los desarrollos más importantes de Blockchain lo realizó la Blockchain Ethereum, a través de los contratos inteligente o Smart-Contract. Los contratos inteligentes son aplicaciones que operan como programas informáticos y se ejecutan a través de Blockchain, de forma descentralizada.

Por simplificar, un Smart-Contract es un código software que se ejecutará por sí mismo bajo ciertas circunstancias acordadas entre las partes de antemano. Normalmente incluyen una transacción financiera. Por ejemplo, si el valor del petróleo baja hasta un precio fijado se invierte una cantidad de dinero en una determinada acción, asi como funciona el Stop Loss en el Mercado Internacional de Divisas.

Los contratos inteligentes aportaran en un futuro servicios financieros sin necesidad de intermediarios. 

Tienen un sinfín de posibilidades: Sistemas de votación online, Seguros, Apuestas.

Los Smart-Contracts incorporan las principales características que Blockchain (inmutabilidad, seguridad y transparencia).

Identidad Perpetua – DNI:

La identificación digital cada vez es más importante en el mundo financiero. Tener la seguridad de que un usuario es realmente el titular de un contrato financiero digital es vital. Con todo esto, la introducción de una identidad personal (DNI, Pasaporte, escritura) en Blockchain garantiza la veracidad de la identificación.

Algunos expertos aseguran que en un futuro próximo existirá una cadena de bloques accesible para todos los intervinientes financieros, donde será posible la obtención de la identificación digital. De forma, que una vez introducido el DNI en ese registro o cadena de bloques, cualquier banco o fintech podrá acceder a la identificación (con autorización del usuario). Por consiguiente, cualquier usuario solo necesitará introducir su DNI o pasaporte una única vez.

Pagos digitales, Stellar o Ripple:

Existen monedas digitales muy eficientes en los pagos internacionales y micropagos:

Ripple: Está especializada en pagos transfronterizos (pagos entre distintos países). El sistema de Ripple está diseñado para entidades financieras y proveedores de pagos de todo el mundo. Esta tecnología evita que las transacciones transfronterizas pasen por intermediarios.

Stellar: Es una plataforma ideal para lo micropagos, debido a su rapidez, comisiones bajas e igualdad de trato entre los usuarios.

Algunas entidades financieras están empezando a desarrollar procesos a través de Blockchain en diversas áreas de negocio. 

Emisión de títulos y activos digitales:

La cadena de bloques permite a las empresas la emisión de títulos o activos digitales (una propiedad, un activo financiero, una criptomoneda…). Una vez introducidos los activos en Blockchain, estos pueden ser comercializados entre distintas compañías. Esta transmisión de activos digitales facilita el comercio y colaboración entre empresas.

Otros desarrollos financieros de blockchain:

Sin lugar a dudas, las criptomonedas es el sector donde más se ha desarrollado la cadena de bloques. La tecnología Blockchain nació como esencia de bitcoin y actualmente, está presente en la mayoría de monedas digitales.

Otras áreas financieras han encontrado, también, soluciones en la cadena de bloques. Por ejemplo, el mercado de valores estadounidense, Nasdaq, usa Blockchain en su mercado de valores privado.

Blockchain, la tecnología que revolucionará Internet:

En un primer momento, Blockchain comenzó a la sombra de bitcoin, pero poco a poco, la cadena de bloques se ha ido implantando en distintos sectores (finanzas, medicina, alimentación...). Muchos gobiernos y multinacionales están tomando posiciones en blockchain, invirtiendo millones de euros para implementar esta tecnología en sus organizaciones.

Desde hace años, el «Internet de la conectividad y la información» ha hecho cambiar la forma en la que vivimos, pensamos y nos relacionamos. Para muchos, la cadena de bloques junto con los nuevos desarrollos digitales (Big Data, IoT, Inteligencia Artificial, sistema cognitivo...), formará parte de la siguiente revolución digital. Realmente, Blockchain permitirá compartir valor (títulos, archivos, patentes…) de una forma digital y descentralizada en la mayoría de sectores económicos.

Así entonces, el desarrollo de la cadena de bloques no está directamente relacionado a la evolución de monedas digitales. A pesar de los interrogantes de las criptomonedas, podemos catalogar a Blockchain como una tecnología que revolucionará el mundo digital.

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

+54911 5665 60608
Buenos Aires, November 24, 2021

2021/11/04

Pandora Papers: Who is the “Bitcoin czar"?...

We are talking about financial secrets related to offshore companies of celebrities, politicians and people of big capital.

Pandora Papers are a leak of nearly 12 million "confidential" documents, nearly three million images, and more than a hundred million emails from more than 14 different sources. We are talking about financial secrets related to offshore companies of celebrities, politicians and people of big capital. Some of these people face accusations of corruption, money laundering and tax evasion. Among the names involved, we have the “Bitcoin czar". Who is the “Bitcoin czar"?

The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), based in Washington, D.C., obtained this data. In fact, more than 140 media organizations have been working on this investigation. That leak outperforms the Panama Papers. Indeed, it is the greatest in history. More than 300 politicians are involved in this scandal. King Abdullah II of Jordan reportedly used an offshore company to purchase real estate in the United Kingdom. But he's not the only one on the list. The president of Ecuador, Guillermo Lasso, appears. Sebastian Piñera from Chile. Luis Abinader from Dominican Republic. Andrés Pastrana and Cesar Gavidia from Colombia. And many more. From the world of show business, sports and culture, we have the Colombian singer Shakira, the model Claudia Schiffer, the Peruvian writer Vargas Llosa and the Argentine footballers, Ángel Di María and Javier Mascherano, among others.

I understand volatility: What is it? How does it work?

What does “offshore”mean?

"Offshore" means: based in other countries. But it refers specifically to countries or territories where it is easy to set up businesses, there are laws that protect the identity of business owners, and taxes are very low or zero. What are these destinations? Well, there's no definite list. But the most popular destinations are The Cayman Islands, The Virgin Islands, Switzerland, Singapore, Panama…

Is it illegal?

No. Well, not necessarily. It all depends on the laws in your country of residence. However, it could be said that it is perfectly possible to be in these tax havens for legitimate reasons. The reasons can be many. Legal security, cyber security, privacy, diversification, tax benefits, etc. In fact, it could be said that appearing on this list does not automatically make you a criminal.

Is it ethical?

Let's talk a little bit about taxes. It is possible to pay very few taxes through legal channels. That's no secret. The law, in most countries, provides for tax exemptions. In other words, it is possible not to pay taxes through legal channels. On the other hand, in most cases, it is also possible to have money in other jurisdictions. Is it ethical to use the law to avoid paying taxes? In my opinion, it is perfectly valid. However, some people suggest that this goes against the spirit of the law. I don't know. That's a debate you can have. In short, “Offshore " is not synonymous with illegality. However, many criminals use offshore companies to launder their money. Investigations must take place on a case-by-case basis, person-to-person.

Will Bitcoin be worth $ 500,000? When?... I just don't think so.

In many cases, the law allows you to have an offshore company registered in some tax haven. However, that should usually be declared. That is the sin of many on this list. Many did not testify. Which raises doubts about where the money comes from. I'm talking about doubt and not guilt. Does a businessman have the right to protect his property against a corrupt dictatorship? We must remember that illegal is not always immoral and moral is not always legal.

The”Bitcoin czar"

Now, there are cases of cases. The "secrets" revealed in this leak can help in many investigations. We must mention the Carbanak case. This refers to a series of thefts that took place between 2013 and 2017. According to Europol, this gang of cybercriminals managed to penetrate 100 banks in 40 countries stealing about USD 1,200 million in total. The press called this operation”the biggest digital heist in history."

Denis Tokarenko, the Bitcoin czar, the alleged leader of the band, was arrested by the Spanish National Police in March 2018, with some 15,000 btc (more than 162 million for the time being) in his possession. Tokarenko had reportedly taken advantage of a mining operation in China to launder the stolen funds. Everything seems to indicate that in the Pandora Papers there are traces of the activities of the Carbanak band.

Now, a criminal is a criminal. I think it's a mistake to divide fiat criminals and crypto criminals. Who has more? Who has less? We know there are criminals in all waters. In fact, most criminals move in many waters at the same time. An example is the so-called "Bitcoin czar". He stole in fiat, laundered the money with crypto to surely get fiat back. The Pandora Papers do not reveal the corruption of fiat money. They reveal corruption in general. Aren't there any crypto criminals?

Who has more criminals? Crypto or fiat? The approach itself is quite ridiculous. I mention this, because in the press I have read several references to it. It is suggested that the fiat world is a nest of corruption and the crypto world is practically a convent of nuns. The supposed proof of this reality is the Pandera Papers. Of course, the stark reality is that crime is everywhere.

Why does the IMF alert on cryptocurrencies?

People who say that Bitcoin is an asset primarily used for crime are just as irresponsible as people who say the same about tax havens. From the list published because of the Pandora Papers, there are many people who have not done anything illegal. They were involved in the scandal, but they are not necessarily guilty of anything. We must remember that these tax havens are recognised countries and territories.

Here's the big question: Are all financial crimes crimes? Suppose a country prohibits the purchase of foreign currency, but the local currency suffers from devaluation after devaluation. In this case, the law is driving the person into poverty. There is talk of”capital flight". Years of work can vanish in a matter of days due to the Government's monetary indiscipline. However, it is illegal to dispose of one's own money. The solution for many is to place money in a tax haven. Is this immoral? Here he left this for reflection.

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

+54911 5665 60608
Buenos Aires, November 11, 2021

The Pandora Papers and the End of Trust...

The bombshell release of the Pandora Papers provided, in staggering scope, a picture of the world’s rich and powerful using their exclusive access to shady if vaguely legal obfuscation schemes to evade taxes and perpetuate humanity’s gaping inequality. 

 
The blow to public trust this could foment in the institutions of the legacy financial system – along with credibility issues at the U.S. Federal Reserve following revelations of unseemly stock trading by top Fed policymakers – is the topic this week of both our newsletter column and the “Money Reimagined” podcast. The question: Does it create opportunities for the alternative system posed by crypto developers?
 
For the podcast episode, Sheila Warren and I bring in Michael S. Derby, a reporter at The Wall Street Journal who broke some of the stories on Fed officials' equity trading, and Maya Zehavi, a crypto entrepreneur known for her sharp insights into regulation and the future of money. 

Alejandro O. Asharabed Trucido

+54911 5665 60608
Buenos Aires, November 11, 2021